Managerial Cognition, Strategic Decision Quality, and Firm Adaptability: An Empirical Study of Nigerian Industrial Firms

This study empirically investigates the mediating role of strategic decision quality in the relationship between managerial cognition and firm adaptability in Nigerian industrial firms, with data drawn from Ogun State (South West), Kano State (North West), and Anambra State (South East). The quality of managerial mental models and cognitive processes in strategy formulation remains an underexplored determinant of adaptive capacity in Nigerian industrial contexts. A quantitative cross-sectional survey was conducted with 185 CEOs, general managers, and strategy directors. Structural equation modelling was used for hypothesis testing. Managerial cognition dimensions assessed include environmental complexity awareness, cognitive flexibility, causal reasoning quality, and strategic scenario thinking ability. Strategic decision quality was measured through decision comprehensiveness, rationality, and stakeholder input integration. Firm adaptability was assessed through product range adjustment speed, market repositioning agility, and operational reconfiguration capability. Findings indicate that cognitive flexibility and strategic scenario thinking exert the strongest positive effects on decision quality, which in turn significantly mediates the cognition-adaptability relationship. Environmental complexity awareness showed direct adaptability effects but relied on decision quality as an amplifying mediator. These findings extend upper echelons theory into the Nigerian industrial context, demonstrating the microfoundations of firm-level adaptability. Recommendations include cognitive skills development programmes for senior managers, structured scenario planning integration, and diverse top management team composition. Keywords: managerial cognition, strategic decision quality, firm adaptability, industrial firms, Nigeria.