International Aid, Administrative Capacity, and Public Service Reform Sustainability in Northern Nigerian States

This dissertation provides an original empirical analysis of how international development assistance interacts with administrative capacity to determine the sustainability of public service reforms in Northern Nigerian states, covering selected states from the North Central, North East, and North West geopolitical zones. While the relationship between aid and governance reform has generated extensive scholarship at the national level, the dynamics of aid-reform interaction at sub-national levels in developing countries, particularly in contexts of significant security and capacity fragility, remain poorly theorised. The dissertation employs a longitudinal comparative design involving six Northern Nigerian states over a 12-year observation period from 2012 to 2023, drawing on a unique dataset constructed from development partner project reports, state government administrative performance indicators, and primary survey data from 420 reform implementers and development partner staff. System GMM panel regression, survival analysis of reform durability, and principal component analysis of administrative capacity are the primary analytical methods. Aid Absorption Theory, the Ownership-Alignment-Harmonisation Framework from the Paris Declaration, and Fukuyama's State Capacity Framework jointly provide the theoretical grounding. The dissertation proposes the Aid-Capacity-Reform Sustainability (ACRS) Model, which identifies conditions under which international aid accelerates versus undermines long-term administrative capacity development. A key finding is a non-linear ownership threshold effect: reforms supported by international aid above a certain intensity level, without proportionate government ownership investment, experience significantly lower long-term sustainability, constituting an original contribution to aid effectiveness theory. Keywords: international aid, administrative capacity, public service reform, Northern Nigeria, aid effectiveness.