Electoral Management, Institutional Trust, and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

This dissertation provides an original longitudinal empirical analysis of the relationship between electoral management quality, institutional trust in INEC, and democratic consolidation in Nigeria's Fourth Republic from 1999 to 2023, covering all six geopolitical zones. Democratic consolidation in Nigeria remains contested, with scholarly opinion divided on whether successive electoral cycles represent genuine deepening of democratic norms or a facade of electoral competition over fundamentally unchanged patrimonial governance structures. The dissertation employs a multi-method design across three phases: panel survey analysis of 2,400 respondents tracked across four election cycles from 2011 to 2023; comparative case studies of electoral management quality in Lagos, Kano, and Enugu States; and a longitudinal qualitative analysis of 60 interviews with INEC officials, election observers, party officials, and civil society election monitors. Structural equation modelling with latent growth curve analysis, comparative process tracing, and discourse analysis serve as the primary analytical tools. Diamond's Theory of Democratic Consolidation, Norris's Electoral Integrity Framework, and Norris and Grömping's Perceptions of Electoral Integrity Index provide the theoretical and measurement foundations. The dissertation proposes the Electoral Trust-Consolidation Pathway Model (ETCPM), which specifies how electoral management credibility builds institutional trust, which in turn generates the public acceptance of outcomes that is a prerequisite for consolidation. Findings reveal a positive but fragile trajectory in which significant INEC capacity improvements have generated measurable trust gains, yet persistent manipulation by political elites and judicial reversal of election results are disrupting the consolidation pathway. Keywords: electoral management, institutional trust, democratic consolidation, INEC, Nigeria.