Predictors of Adult Literacy Programme Completion in North East Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

This study empirically identified predictors of adult literacy programme completion in Adamawa, Taraba, and Borno States, North East Nigeria. Despite significant investment in adult literacy infrastructure in the region, completion rates remain critically low, yet the relative weight of individual, social, and institutional factors predicting completion has not been systematically analysed across the zone. The study employed a prospective cohort design tracking 300 adult learners enrolled in government-funded literacy programmes at baseline and at six-month follow-up. Baseline demographic surveys, programme record reviews, and standardised motivational assessment tools formed the data collection instruments. Binary logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of completion. Results indicated that learner self-efficacy, facilitator quality rating, programme schedule flexibility, family support score, and proximity to programme site were the strongest independent predictors of completion, accounting for 68 percent of variance in completion outcomes. Gender was not a significant independent predictor after controlling for other factors. Learners who reported at least one significant disorienting dilemma that triggered reflection on the value of education demonstrated threefold higher completion odds. The study fills a gap in zone-specific predictive evidence for adult literacy programme design. Recommendations include incorporating pre-enrolment motivational support interventions, prioritising facilitator quality over enrolment numbers in resource allocation decisions, and piloting satellite learning sites to address proximity barriers. Keywords: programme completion, predictors, adult literacy, North East Nigeria, logistic regression.