Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Actuarial Implications for Nigeria

This study estimates excess mortality in Nigeria during the COVID-19 pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 using indirect demographic methods and examines the actuarial implications of the estimated mortality shock for life insurance pricing and reserving. Nigeria's official COVID-19 death count is widely considered a severe underestimate due to limited testing capacity, weak vital registration, and attribution challenges in a high competing-cause mortality environment. Accurate excess mortality estimation is essential for actuarial assessment of pandemic impact on life insurance portfolios and for calibrating pandemic stress scenarios in future solvency models. This study applies the P-score excess mortality methodology to demographic and mortality data from the National Population Commission, facility mortality records from the Federal Ministry of Health, and burial records from a stratified sample of states across all six geopolitical zones. Age-sex specific excess mortality estimates are derived and compared with NCDC official COVID-19 mortality statistics. Actuarial impact analysis quantifies the implied claims experience deviation for a representative Nigerian life insurer under the estimated excess mortality. Findings reveal excess mortality estimates approximately 8 to 14 times the official COVID-19 death count, concentrated in adults aged 60 and over and in states with lower healthcare access. Life insurer claims experience for the 60 and over age band shows a statistically significant excess consistent with the demographic mortality estimates. The study concludes that Nigerian life insurance actuarial models must incorporate pandemic-calibrated mortality scenarios substantially more severe than official statistics suggest. It recommends mandatory pandemic stress testing calibration using excess mortality estimates.

Keywords: excess mortality, COVID-19, pandemic actuarial impact, life insurance, Nigeria.