Pan-African Economic Integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area: Nigeria’s Strategic Positioning

This study empirically analyses Nigeria's strategic positioning within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which formally commenced trade in 2021, examining the historical context of Nigeria's ambivalent relationship with African economic integration, the determinants of Nigeria's eventual accession, and the implications of AfCFTA implementation for Nigerian trade competitiveness and industrial policy. Nigeria was the last major African economy to sign the AfCFTA agreement in 2019, following an initial withdrawal driven by domestic industrial lobbying concerns, reflecting deep-seated tensions between Nigerian manufacturers' protectionist interests and continental integration commitments. A mixed-methods design is employed, combining quantitative analysis of Nigeria's bilateral trade data with AfCFTA member states from 2019 to 2023 with qualitative analysis of policy documents and 35 interviews with trade ministry officials, manufacturers, and trade economists. The Comparative Advantage Theory, the Institutional Theory of Regional Integration, and the Pan-African Political Economy Framework jointly provide the analytical lenses. Findings reveal that Nigerian non-oil exports are growing modestly within the AfCFTA framework, but import competition from lower-cost African producers is accelerating the contraction of vulnerable domestic industries. The study recommends an AfCFTA adjustment strategy that combines competitive industrial policy, trade facilitation investments, and regionally differentiated tariff implementation schedules. Keywords: AfCFTA, African integration, Nigeria, trade competitiveness, Pan-African economy.