Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Adult Literacy Programme Completion in Nigeria

This study provides a rigorous empirical analysis of the determinants of adult literacy programme completion across multiple geopolitical zones in Nigeria, contributing to the limited quantitative evidence base on dropout and completion in the Nigerian non-formal education sector. High dropout rates in adult literacy programmes represent a major obstacle to achieving the sustainable development goal of universal functional literacy, yet the determinants of completion have not been systematically examined at a national scale in Nigeria. This study uses a nationally representative sample of 780 adult literacy programme participants drawn from 30 adult education centres across all six geopolitical zones, collected through a stratified random sampling design. Completion is defined as attaining the minimum literacy and numeracy competency threshold by programme end. Explanatory variables include individual characteristics, household factors, programme design features, and community-level variables. Binary logistic regression with clustered standard errors and propensity score matching methods are applied. Findings reveal that programme content relevance to daily livelihood activities, peer study group participation, facilitator qualification level, and family support are the strongest and most robust predictors of completion across zones. Geographic zone is a significant predictor, with North West and North East participants demonstrating the lowest completion probabilities after controlling for other variables. The study contributes an original multi-level completion determinant model for Nigerian adult literacy programmes and recommends evidence-based programme design reforms targeting the identified completion predictors.

Keywords: adult literacy completion, dropout determinants, Nigeria, logistic regression, non-formal education.