Spatial Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Relation to Livestock Trade Networks in North West Nigeria

This study applies spatial epidemiological methods to analyse the distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in relation to livestock trade network structure in North West Nigeria, encompassing Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Sokoto States. FMD spread through livestock trade networks is the dominant transmission pathway in West Africa, but network-informed spatial analysis of FMD in the North West zone has not been conducted. Using a retrospective spatial epidemiology design, geo-referenced FMD outbreak data from state veterinary outbreak registers from 2019 to 2023 were mapped and subjected to spatial clustering analysis using SaTScan and kernel density estimation. Livestock market network data were collected through structured interviews with 120 cattle traders, market managers, and herder group leaders, and trade routes were mapped using a network analysis framework. Spatial overlay of FMD cluster areas with high-density trade routes was performed in ArcGIS. The study addresses the gap in spatially explicit analysis of FMD spread linked to trade networks in Northern Nigeria. Findings revealed 14 statistically significant FMD spatial clusters, 11 of which overlapped spatially with primary livestock trade corridors connecting major markets. Network analysis identified three high-centrality markets as probable FMD diffusion hubs. The study recommends network-targeted FMD vaccination campaigns and pre-movement testing requirements at high-centrality livestock markets in North West Nigeria. Keywords: foot-and-mouth disease, spatial epidemiology, livestock trade networks, North West Nigeria, GIS.