Critical Realism and Adult Education Research: Constructing a Causal Mechanism Model for Literacy Programme Outcomes in Nigeria

This study applies critical realist philosophy of social science to construct a causal mechanism model for adult literacy programme outcomes in Nigeria, contributing an original methodological and theoretical framework to the Nigerian adult education research literature. Critical realism, which distinguishes between empirical events, actual mechanisms, and deep structural conditions, offers a more powerful explanatory framework for understanding why adult literacy programmes succeed or fail than the variable-centered approaches that dominate the field. This study draws on Bhaskar's stratified ontology and Pawson and Tilley's realistic evaluation methodology to develop a context-mechanism-outcome framework for adult literacy in Nigeria. Empirical data are generated through a three-phase sequential mixed-method study: a systematic review of Nigerian adult literacy evaluation evidence; a multi-site qualitative case study in 12 programmes across four geopolitical zones identifying context-mechanism-outcome configurations; and a national survey testing the generalisability of identified mechanisms using structural equation modelling across 600 learners. Findings establish seven generative mechanisms through which adult literacy programmes produce outcomes in Nigeria, including social legitimacy activation, transformative encounter, economic relevance salience, peer solidarity formation, and facilitator modelling. Each mechanism operates differentially across structural contexts. The study contributes an original critical realist causal mechanism model for Nigerian adult literacy, providing a theoretically grounded alternative to input-output evaluation models. It recommends realistic evaluation as the standard methodology for UBEC programme evaluations.

Keywords: critical realism, causal mechanisms, adult literacy, realistic evaluation, Nigeria.