Analysis of Fuel Price Fluctuations and Consumer Price Index in Plateau State from 2018 to 2023

Fuel price volatility in Nigeria disproportionately affects transportation and food costs, with cascading effects on consumer prices that statistical analysis of Plateau State data can help quantify for policy and planning purposes. This study analyses the statistical relationship between fuel price fluctuations and the consumer price index in Plateau State from 2018 to 2023. Monthly premium motor spirit pump prices from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and CPI data from the National Bureau of Statistics Plateau State office were used. Descriptive statistics characterised both series. Cross-correlation analysis determined the lead-lag relationship between fuel prices and CPI components. Distributed lag regression modelled the cumulative CPI response to fuel price shocks. Ordinary least squares assumptions were tested by Breusch-Pagan and Durbin-Watson diagnostics. The mean fuel price increased from N145 per litre in 2018 to N617 per litre in 2023, a 325 percent rise. CPI increased by 186 percent over the same period. Cross-correlation analysis showed that fuel price increases preceded overall CPI increases by one to two months (peak cross-correlation 0.71 at lag 2). Distributed lag regression showed cumulative CPI elasticity of 0.44 with respect to fuel prices over a four-month horizon. Transportation and food CPI sub-components showed the strongest fuel price pass-through. The study recommends that Plateau State government monitor fuel-CPI transmission for pro-poor policy adjustment timing and evaluate the inflationary impact of fuel subsidy removal on household welfare. Keywords: fuel price, consumer price index, Plateau State, distributed lag regression, cross-correlation