📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
Urban master plans are the foundational instruments of spatial planning in Nigerian cities, yet systematic empirical evidence on their effectiveness in shaping actual spatial development outcomes remains limited. This study assesses the impact of master plans on spatial development outcomes in three Nigerian state capitals representing different geopolitical zones: Uyo, Akwa Ibom State in the South South; Sokoto in the North West; and Abeokuta in the South West. A comparative case study design was employed, analysing each city's most recent master plan against actual spatial development observed through satellite imagery from the plan's adoption year to 2024. A spatial conformance analysis was conducted to measure the degree to which observed development locations, densities, and land uses align with master plan designations. Interviews with planning officials in each city examined implementation barriers. Findings are expected to reveal low levels of spatial conformance in all three cities, with Uyo showing marginally higher conformance due to stronger planning institutional capacity, while Sokoto and Abeokuta exhibit significant divergence from master plan intentions driven by informal development and limited enforcement. The study develops a master plan effectiveness typology and identifies institutional factors associated with higher conformance. Recommendations address reform of master plan preparation processes to ensure realistic implementation capacity assessment, introduction of conformance monitoring requirements, strengthening of development control linked explicitly to master plan provisions, and periodic rolling review cycles to maintain plan relevance. Keywords: Urban master plans, Spatial development, Plan effectiveness, Nigerian cities, Planning governance.
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