Empirical Analysis of Urban Economic Multipliers from Infrastructure Investment in Rivers State

Understanding the economic multiplier effects of urban infrastructure investment is critical for evidence-based planning decisions about infrastructure priorities and financing. This study empirically estimates economic multipliers from public infrastructure investments in Rivers State, examining the spatial and sectoral distribution of economic activity stimulated by road, water, and energy infrastructure projects. Using a quasi-experimental approach, the study compares economic outcomes in local government areas receiving major infrastructure investments between 2016 and 2022 with comparable control areas using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences estimation. Economic outcome measures include nighttime light intensity as a proxy for economic activity, NBS enterprise survey data, and Rivers State internally generated revenue records. Infrastructure investment data were obtained from Rivers State Ministry of Finance project records. Findings are expected to demonstrate positive but heterogeneous multiplier effects, with transport infrastructure generating the largest and most durable economic returns, particularly in areas with pre-existing commercial activity that was constrained by accessibility. Energy infrastructure investments show strong short-term activity responses, while water supply impacts are most pronounced for manufacturing establishments. The study addresses a gap in empirical planning research on the spatial economics of infrastructure investment in South South Nigeria. Recommendations address infrastructure investment prioritization based on multiplier evidence, complementary policy packages to maximize infrastructure returns, and monitoring frameworks for evaluating economic outcomes of planned infrastructure expenditures in Rivers State. Keywords: Infrastructure investment, Economic multipliers, Rivers State, Urban economics, Spatial analysis.