Structural Determinants of Urban Poverty Persistence in Nigerian Cities: A Multi-Level Longitudinal Analysis

Urban poverty in Nigerian cities is not merely a transitional state but often a persistent condition transmitted across generations, yet the structural urban planning and governance determinants of poverty persistence remain theoretically and empirically underexplored. This study conducts a multi-level longitudinal analysis of structural determinants of urban poverty persistence in four Nigerian cities: Lagos, Kano, Enugu, and Jos, tracking household poverty trajectories over a six-year panel period from 2018 to 2024. Drawing on structural poverty theory, place-based disadvantage theory, and political economy perspectives, the study develops a theoretical framework integrating spatial, institutional, and economic structural factors as determinants of poverty persistence. Primary data collection involved four waves of panel surveys with 2,000 urban poor households, complemented by spatial analysis of infrastructure deprivation patterns, planning permit distributions, and labor market access measures. Multi-level growth curve models are estimated to identify structural predictors of poverty trajectory types: persistent poor, upwardly mobile, and transient poor. Original findings are expected to demonstrate that spatial location in planning-neglected zones of the city, insecure land tenure, and proximity to informal labor markets are the strongest structural predictors of persistent poverty, while individual-level factors including education have weaker effects than structural factors after controlling for place. Theoretical contributions include a Structural Urban Poverty Persistence Framework for West African cities. Recommendations address place-based anti-poverty planning strategies targeting the identified structural determinants, with implications for how planning investments should be allocated to maximize poverty reduction impact. Keywords: Urban poverty, Structural determinants, Longitudinal analysis, Nigeria, Place-based planning.