Theoretical Framework for Sustainable Intensification of Vegetable Production Systems in the Nigerian Guinea Savanna: An Agroecological Systems Approach

Sustainable intensification of smallholder vegetable production in Nigeria's Guinea Savanna zone requires theoretically grounded frameworks that integrate agronomic, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions of production system redesign. Existing intensification models derived from Green Revolution paradigms inadequately account for the complex socio-ecological contexts of North Central Nigerian farming systems, resulting in adoption failures and environmental trade-offs. This dissertation develops and tests a context-specific theoretical framework for sustainable vegetable production intensification in the Guinea Savanna, synthesizing agroecological systems theory, sustainable livelihoods analysis, and socio-technical transition theory. The framework is empirically grounded using longitudinal data from 320 vegetable farming households across Kwara, Kogi, and Benue states collected over three agricultural seasons. System performance indicators spanning yield, biodiversity, soil health, income, and food security are modeled using a multi-indicator framework and structural equation modeling. Scenario analysis tools are applied to project the trajectory of alternative intensification pathways under different policy and market conditions. The framework reveals that productivity-biodiversity trade-offs are mediated by farm-level social capital and institutional connectivity, providing novel theoretical contribution to sustainable intensification debates. Recommendations center on co-designed intensification pathways that align farmer innovation capacity with ecological sustainability thresholds in the Nigerian Guinea Savanna. Keywords: sustainable intensification, agroecological systems, Guinea Savanna, Nigeria, theoretical framework