Agricultural Transformation Pathways in Nigeria: A Structural Change and Political Economy Analysis

This study develops an original analytical framework for understanding Nigeria's agricultural transformation pathways, integrating structural change theory, agricultural development economics, and political economy analysis to explain why Nigeria's agricultural transformation has been slower and more uneven than comparable economies at similar development stages. Agricultural transformation, the process by which agriculture's share of GDP and employment declines while productivity per worker rises and the agricultural sector becomes more commercialised and integrated with the broader economy, is theorised to be an essential component of broader economic development. Nigeria's trajectory diverges significantly from canonical transformation pathways, with the oil economy creating distinctive distortions in factor markets, public investment priorities, and sectoral incentive structures. This study develops a three-part analytical contribution: a stylised theoretical model of oil-distorted agricultural transformation dynamics; an econometric analysis of structural change determinants across Nigerian states using 30 years of state-level economic and agricultural data; and a political economy analysis of the institutional and political factors that have shaped agricultural transformation outcomes through case studies of key policy episodes. Findings establish that Nigeria's oil rents have systematically crowded out agricultural transformation by distorting rural factor markets, reducing the political salience of agricultural productivity, and creating fiscal space for subsidy-based rather than investment-based agricultural support. The study contributes an original oil-distorted transformation theory and recommends sovereign wealth fund mechanisms that ring-fence agricultural transformation investment from oil revenue volatility.

Keywords: agricultural transformation, structural change, Nigeria, political economy, oil economy.