Climate Finance, Agricultural Adaptation, and Smallholder Resilience in Nigeria: A Political Economy of Green Agricultural Finance

This study analyses the political economy of climate finance for agricultural adaptation in Nigeria, examining how international climate finance flows, national climate policy frameworks, and domestic political economy dynamics jointly determine whether smallholder farmers receive effective support for climate resilience building. Nigeria has significant obligations and opportunities in the international climate finance architecture, including the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, and bilateral climate adaptation programmes, yet a large gap persists between international climate finance commitments and smallholder-level adaptation support. This study develops an original political economy of green agricultural finance framework, integrating climate finance governance theory, principal-agent models of development finance delivery, and political economy analysis. Empirical evidence is generated from three sources: analysis of Nigeria's GCF project portfolio and adaptation finance flows from 2015 to 2023; a survey of 180 smallholder farmers in climate-vulnerable communities in Sokoto, Plateau, and Delta States on climate finance awareness and access; and interviews with 40 climate finance practitioners, government officials, and NGO representatives. Findings reveal significant institutional and political economy barriers to climate finance reaching smallholder farmers, including fragmented coordination between the NCCC and agricultural ministries, rent-seeking in project implementation, and weak grievance and accountability mechanisms. The study contributes an original political economy framework for green agricultural finance in Nigeria and recommends an independent climate finance tracking mechanism and smallholder-targeted climate adaptation finance window.

Keywords: climate finance, agricultural adaptation, smallholder resilience, Nigeria, political economy.