Agricultural Innovation Ecosystems in Nigeria: A Complex Adaptive Systems Framework

This study applies a complex adaptive systems framework to analyse agricultural innovation ecosystems in Nigeria, developing an original theoretical and analytical contribution to the agricultural innovation systems literature. The agricultural innovation systems approach, which examines innovation as an emergent property of interactions among diverse actors including researchers, extension workers, farmers, input suppliers, financial institutions, and policymakers, has been applied extensively in African agricultural contexts. However, existing frameworks inadequately capture the complexity, non-linearity, and emergent dynamics of innovation systems that cannot be reduced to bilateral actor relationships. This study proposes an original Complex Agricultural Innovation Ecosystem framework that draws on complex adaptive systems theory, applying concepts of emergence, self-organisation, feedback dynamics, and co-evolutionary change to Nigerian agricultural innovation contexts. Empirical grounding uses a multi-stakeholder network analysis of innovation ecosystems in the Nigerian soybean, aquaculture, and horticulture sectors. Innovation network data are collected from 240 innovation actors through social network surveys and qualitative interviews. Network analysis metrics including centrality, clustering, structural holes, and resilience indicators are computed and their innovation outcome implications assessed. Findings reveal that innovation ecosystem effectiveness is significantly shaped by network topology, with moderately dense, distributed networks outperforming both highly centralised and highly fragmented structures. CGIAR institutions occupy high-betweenness centrality positions that give them disproportionate influence over innovation pathways. The study contributes an original complex systems innovation framework for Nigeria and recommends deliberate ecosystem architecture design rather than linear pipeline approaches to agricultural innovation policy.

Keywords: agricultural innovation ecosystems, complex adaptive systems, Nigeria, innovation networks, CGIAR.