Multidimensional Agricultural Poverty in Nigeria: Measurement, Dynamics, and Policy Implications

This study develops and applies an original multidimensional agricultural poverty measure for Nigeria, analyses poverty dynamics using panel data, and derives evidence-based policy implications for poverty reduction in the agricultural sector. Traditional agricultural poverty analysis using income or consumption thresholds captures only one dimension of the complex deprivation experienced by farming households, missing critical dimensions related to asset ownership, access to services, human capital, and social exclusion that jointly determine poverty trajectories. This study develops an Agricultural Multidimensional Poverty Index specifically calibrated to the Nigerian farming household context, incorporating six dimensions: agricultural income adequacy, food security, human capital, productive asset ownership, market and service access, and social capital and empowerment. The AMPI is applied to three waves of LSMS-ISA Nigeria panel data covering 2010, 2016, and 2019, comprising 5,000 agricultural households. Poverty transition analysis examines chronic versus transient poverty patterns. Regression analysis and machine learning classification identify the strongest predictors of poverty entry and exit. Counterfactual simulation assesses the poverty-reducing potential of alternative policy interventions. Findings reveal that 71 percent of Nigerian agricultural households are multidimensionally poor, significantly above income poverty measures alone. Chronic poverty accounts for 48 percent of total poverty incidence. The most effective poverty exit pathways involve simultaneous improvements in multiple dimensions. The study contributes an original AMPI for Nigeria and recommends multidimensional, integrated rural development programming rather than single-dimension poverty reduction strategies.

Keywords: multidimensional poverty, agricultural households, Nigeria, poverty dynamics, panel data.