A Complexity Theory Analysis of Tourism Destination Resilience in Nigerian Cities: Case Studies of Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt

This study applies complexity theory to analyse tourism destination resilience in three of Nigeria's largest and most tourism-active cities, namely Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt, generating an original framework for urban hospitality and tourism resilience in the African megacity context. Traditional destination resilience frameworks, predominantly developed in small island and European heritage city contexts, do not adequately account for the non-linear, emergent, and adaptive dynamics that characterise Nigerian urban tourism systems. A comparative case study research design is adopted with data generated through 36 elite interviews per city with hotel operators, tourism officials, event organisers, transport providers, and community representatives, supplemented by document analysis and secondary economic data over the period 2019 to 2024, encompassing the COVID-19 disruption and recovery cycle. Complexity theory constructs applied include systemic connectivity, adaptive cycles, self-organisation, and emergence. Cross-case analysis reveals that informal tourism economy actors function as critical resilience buffers, absorbing shocks that formal sector structures cannot accommodate. Each city demonstrates a distinct resilience profile: Lagos exhibits high adaptive capacity but low systemic equity; Kano demonstrates strong community-based social resilience with weaker institutional capacity; Port Harcourt shows economic resilience concentrated in business tourism but fragile cultural product diversity. The study develops a Nigerian Urban Tourism Resilience Framework with a composite resilience index and a diagnostic toolkit for destination managers. Theoretical contributions to complexity theory applications in tourism geography are also articulated. Keywords: destination resilience, complexity theory, urban tourism, Nigeria, comparative case study