An Analytical Study of Construction Contractor Default in Publicly Procured Projects in Nigeria

Contractor default is a recurring and costly phenomenon in Nigerian public construction, resulting in project abandonment, budget waste, and deteriorating public infrastructure quality. This study provides an analytical investigation of the causes, patterns, and financial consequences of contractor default in publicly procured building and civil engineering projects across Nigeria. Using a national multizone dataset, 185 quantity surveyors, procurement officials, and legal practitioners completed structured instruments, while 40 documented cases of contractor default were subjected to detailed forensic cost analysis. Discriminant analysis and logistic regression were used to identify default predictors. Findings show that the strongest predictors of contractor default are undercapitalisation at contract award, unrealistic tender pricing, payment delays exceeding 120 days, and excessive subcontracting. Default cases are associated with average sunk cost losses of 34% of contract value and average programme extensions of 18 months. Public buildings in North Central and North East zones show the highest default rates, partly linked to security-related disruptions and supply chain fragility. The study demonstrates that contractor prequalification systems currently in use by most Nigerian agencies have limited discriminatory power in predicting default risk. This research fills an important analytical gap by providing empirical default risk profiling for the Nigerian public construction market. Recommendations target prequalification reform, payment management, and performance security standardisation. Keywords: contractor default, public procurement, construction, Nigeria, risk analysis