Theoretical Foundations of Value for Money Assessment in Nigerian Public Infrastructure Investment: A Critical Realist Inquiry

Value for money (VfM) assessment is central to public infrastructure investment decision-making, yet its theoretical foundations, methodological assumptions, and applicability in the Nigerian institutional context have received insufficient critical examination. This study investigates the theoretical foundations of VfM assessment practices in Nigerian public infrastructure investment using a critical realist philosophical framework. Employing a multi-phase qualitative design including 55 expert interviews, systematic literature synthesis, and critical analysis of policy documents and project appraisal reports, the study examines VfM frameworks used by the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission, the Budget Office of the Federation, and international development banks. Findings reveal that VfM assessment in Nigerian infrastructure is dominated by narrow financial comparator tools that fail to capture social value, distributional equity, and long-term resilience dimensions. The study identifies a structural tension between the VfM framework's neoliberal theoretical foundations and the developmental state imperatives that characterise Nigerian infrastructure policy. A Critical Infrastructure VfM Framework (CIVF) is developed, embedding social value, inter-generational equity, and institutional capacity factors within a refined assessment methodology applicable to the Nigerian context. This research makes an original theoretical contribution to infrastructure economics and public finance scholarship in sub-Saharan Africa. Empirical validation of the CIVF is demonstrated through retrospective application to six major infrastructure projects. Keywords: value for money, public infrastructure, critical realism, Nigeria, theoretical framework