An Original Sociological Theory of Democratic Backsliding in Nigeria: Elite Strategies, Institutional Erosion, and Civic Resistance

Nigeria's democratic trajectory since 1999 has followed a non-linear pattern in which formal democratic institutions coexist with systematic elite manipulation, institutional erosion, and periodic authoritarian episodes that existing democratisation theory inadequately explains. This doctoral study develops an original sociological theory of democratic backsliding in Nigeria, drawing on five years of research combining institutional sociology, political ethnography, and civil society analysis. Research combined comparative institutional analysis of the Independent National Electoral Commission, National Assembly, and Federal Judiciary across five electoral cycles, sixty-eight in-depth interviews with politicians, civil servants, electoral observers, and civil society leaders, participant observation at electoral campaign events and civil society mobilisations, and social movement analysis of civic resistance organisations. The original theoretical framework, termed Contested Democratic Equilibrium, proposes that Nigerian democracy is neither consolidating nor fully reversing but is maintained in a structurally contested equilibrium produced by the simultaneous operation of three institutional dynamics: elite cartels that selectively enforce democratic rules to constrain rivals while violating them personally; institutional custodians within the judiciary and civil service who preserve procedural democratic norms at micro-institutional levels despite macro-level erosion; and civic resistance communities that continuously expand the social cost of authoritarian behaviour without achieving systemic democratic consolidation. The framework advances democratisation sociology by theorising the sociology of democratic equilibrium maintenance rather than treating democracy as a binary achieved or failed state, offering an original analytical contribution applicable to democratic fragility in similar African state contexts. Keywords: democratic backsliding, Nigeria, institutional erosion, elite strategies, civic resistance.