Determinants of Student Retention in Vocational Education Programmes in North West Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

This study empirically investigated the determinants of student retention in vocational education programmes in North West Nigeria, covering Kano, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina, and Jigawa States. Student attrition is a persistent challenge that undermines the return on investment in vocational education, yet multi-state empirical analyses in the North West zone are scarce. A survey design and multinomial logistic regression model were employed, with data collected from 800 current students and 300 recent dropouts across 30 vocational schools. Instruments included the Student Retention Determinants Questionnaire (SRDQ), validated through confirmatory factor analysis. Results showed that financial support, teacher quality, peer social integration, career expectation clarity, and institutional belonging were statistically significant predictors of retention. Financial hardship was the single strongest predictor of dropout (OR = 4.21), followed by low teacher quality (OR = 2.87). Students who received career counseling within their first semester were significantly more likely to persist. The study recommends introducing retention-focused bursary schemes, embedding structured career counseling in the first term of all vocational programmes, and training teachers specifically in motivational instructional strategies. These findings fill an important empirical gap in the literature on vocational education persistence in northern Nigeria. Keywords: student retention, vocational education, North West Nigeria, dropout determinants, logistic regression.