Zoonotic Virus Spillover Risk at Human-Wildlife Interfaces in Ogun State Forest Communities

Human encroachment into forest ecosystems in southern Nigeria creates conditions for zoonotic virus spillover from wildlife reservoirs to human populations, a dynamic that preceded the emergence of HIV, Ebola, and Monkeypox. Forest-adjacent communities in Ogun State represent active human-wildlife interfaces yet receive minimal virological surveillance attention. This study characterises zoonotic virus spillover risk in three forest-fringe communities in Ogun State, South West Nigeria, using an integrated ecological and serological approach. Community residents (n=400) who engage in forest entry activities (farming, hunting, fuelwood collection) will be enrolled and serum samples tested for antibodies to a panel of zoonotic viruses including Monkeypox virus, bat-borne paramyxoviruses, filoviruses, and retroviruses, using microsphere immunoassay. Bats and rodents will be trapped at forest edge sites, and tissues tested for paramyxovirus, coronavirus, and filovirus RNA by degenerate RT-PCR with pan-pathogen primer sets. Forest activity frequency, wildlife contact intensity, and bushmeat consumption habits will be collected from enrolled residents. Spillover risk indices will be modelled using ecological exposure scores. The lack of community-level spillover surveillance in Ogun State, despite its significant forest cover and proximity to Lagos's high-density population, represents a critical gap in Nigeria's emerging infectious disease preparedness. Keywords: zoonotic spillover, human-wildlife interface, Ogun State, forest communities, emerging viruses