The Effect of Tax Revenue on Human Capital Development in Niger State

This study examines the relationship between tax revenue and human capital development outcomes in Niger State, North Central Nigeria. Human capital development, proxied by public expenditure on education and health, is considered a foundational prerequisite for sustainable economic growth. Niger State, despite its size and natural resources, continues to record below-average scores on national human development indicators. This research adopts an ex-post facto design, analysing Niger State government fiscal data including tax revenue collections, sector-specific budget allocations, and education and health outcome indicators over a ten-year period. Secondary data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Niger State Ministry of Finance are the primary data sources. The study applies trend analysis and Pearson correlation. Expected findings suggest that while tax revenue contributes to human capital expenditure, actual disbursements fall short of budgetary provisions due to poor internally generated revenue performance and dependency on federal allocations. The translation of education and health expenditure into tangible outcomes is further weakened by leakages and inefficiencies in public procurement. Recommendations include increasing the efficiency of Niger State's IGR collection, especially from mining and agricultural taxation, ring-fencing social sector allocations within the annual budget, and establishing a monitoring and evaluation framework tied to revenue performance. This study contributes to the evidence base on taxation and social investment in Nigeria's middle-belt region. Keywords: tax revenue, human capital, education, Niger State, public expenditure.