Empirical Analysis of Tax Morale and Voluntary Compliance in the South West Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria

This study empirically investigates the determinants of tax morale and their relationship to voluntary compliance across the six states of the South West geopolitical zone of Nigeria. Tax morale, defined as the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes independent of external enforcement, is increasingly recognised in the fiscal psychology literature as a critical predictor of sustainable compliance. Using a multi-state survey design, the study samples 600 adult taxpayers proportionally across Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti states, employing stratified random sampling within each state. The questionnaire operationalises tax morale through established attitudinal scales adapted for the Nigerian context, measuring dimensions including trust in government, fiscal exchange perceptions, social norms, and religious beliefs. Voluntary compliance is assessed using self-reported and administrative filing frequency data. Structural equation modelling is employed to test the hypothesised causal pathways. The study expects to find that trust in government institutions and perceived fiscal reciprocity are the strongest predictors of tax morale, with significant variation across states reflecting differences in governance quality and public service delivery. Social norms and peer behaviour effects are also anticipated as significant, particularly in densely networked urban communities. Contributions include the first multi-state tax morale model calibrated to South West Nigeria. Recommendations address governance improvement, taxpayer feedback mechanisms, and social norm-based compliance communication strategies. Keywords: tax morale, voluntary compliance, South West Nigeria, fiscal psychology, structural equation modelling.