Revenue Impact of the Finance Acts 2019 to 2023 on Small and Medium Enterprises in Nigeria

This study undertakes an empirical assessment of the cumulative revenue and compliance impact of the Finance Acts 2019 to 2023 on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria. The successive Finance Acts introduced a range of SME-specific provisions including reduced CIT rates, revised VAT registration thresholds, expanded capital allowances, and minimum tax reforms. Understanding whether these provisions have achieved their stated objectives of reducing compliance burdens and promoting SME growth requires rigorous empirical evaluation. Using a panel dataset of 200 SMEs drawn from FIRS filing records in Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt, the study employs difference-in-differences estimation, using the progressive implementation dates of different Finance Act provisions as treatment cutoffs. Dependent variables include effective tax rates, compliance frequency, tax-adjusted profitability, and employment levels. Heterogeneous effects by firm size, sector, and geopolitical location are explored. The study expects to find that SMEs benefiting from the reduced CIT rate demonstrate statistically significant increases in post-tax profitability and compliance regularity, but that the fiscal benefit is concentrated in formal-sector firms with pre-existing filing histories. Informal SMEs not previously in the tax net show minimal Finance Act response, suggesting outreach gaps. Contributions include the most comprehensive longitudinal Finance Act impact assessment for Nigerian SMEs to date. Keywords: Finance Acts, SMEs, tax compliance, CIT rate, corporate income tax.