Conflict Impact Assessment in Nigerian Infrastructure Development Projects

This study develops and tests a conflict impact assessment framework for major infrastructure development projects in Nigeria, drawing on case evidence from road and rail projects in the North Central geopolitical zone spanning Niger and Kogi states. Large-scale infrastructure projects generate significant conflict risks through land acquisition, displacement, labour competition, and perceived unequal benefit distribution, yet Nigerian project management practice rarely incorporates systematic conflict impact assessment. Using a professional practice research design, data were gathered through structured interviews with 30 project engineers, community development officers, environmental impact assessment consultants, and displaced community representatives across the studied project corridors. Review of Federal Ministry of Works project documentation and community grievance records from 2020 to 2024 supplemented primary data. The theoretical framework draws from conflict-sensitive development theory and social impact assessment frameworks. Findings indicate that most infrastructure projects studied did not conduct pre-project conflict risk assessments, with conflict incidents arising post-construction commencement being managed reactively and at substantially higher cost than preventive approaches would have required. The study recommends making conflict impact assessment mandatory for all capital projects above a defined threshold value in Nigeria, training project management professionals in conflict-sensitive development practices, and establishing a Federal Ministry of Works conflict liaison officer role for major infrastructure corridors. Keywords: conflict impact assessment, infrastructure, development projects, Nigeria, conflict-sensitive development.