Determinants of Conflict Recurrence in Post-Peace Agreement Communities in Borno State

This study empirically examines the determinants of conflict recurrence in communities that have formally concluded peace agreements in Borno State, North East Nigeria. Despite multiple negotiated peace pacts between government actors, traditional institutions, and conflict parties, conflict recurrence remains prevalent in post-agreement communities, suggesting that formal peace agreements alone are insufficient guarantors of durable peace. Using a mixed-methods research design, quantitative data were collected from 240 community members across 12 post-agreement communities in Konduga, Gwoza, and Bama local government areas, and qualitative data were obtained through key informant interviews with peace committee members, traditional leaders, and humanitarian practitioners. Binary logistic regression was employed to identify significant predictors of conflict recurrence. The theoretical framework draws from the conflict recurrence literature and the spoiler problem theory. Findings indicate that weak implementation of agreement provisions, absence of transitional justice mechanisms, exclusion of key conflict parties from negotiations, and inadequate post-agreement economic recovery are the strongest predictors of conflict recurrence in the studied communities. The study contributes to the empirical gap in understanding post-agreement peace durability in Nigerian conflict zones. Recommendations include designing agreement implementation monitoring committees with independent oversight, embedding economic recovery provisions in all community peace agreements, and mainstreaming conflict-sensitive programming into post-agreement stabilisation budgets in Borno State. Keywords: conflict recurrence, peace agreements, Borno State, post-conflict, peace durability.