Impact of Climate Change on Pastoralist-Farmer Conflicts in the Nigerian Middle Belt

This study analyses the impact of climate change-induced resource stress on the intensity and frequency of pastoralist-farmer conflicts in Nigeria's Middle Belt region, encompassing Benue, Nasarawa, and Kwara states in the North Central geopolitical zone. Declining rainfall, desertification, and disrupted seasonal grazing patterns have exacerbated competition for land and water between farming and herding communities, yet the specific causal pathways linking climate variables to conflict outcomes remain contested in the Nigerian literature. Employing a mixed-methods research design, the study combined satellite-derived rainfall and land cover change data from 2015 to 2024 with survey data from 280 farming and herding households and qualitative interview data from 30 conflict resolution practitioners in the study zone. Path analysis was used to test climate-conflict pathways. The theoretical framework draws from the environment-conflict nexus theory and the scarcity conflict model. Findings confirm a significant indirect relationship between rainfall reduction and conflict incidence, mediated by pasture degradation, crop failure, and increased cattle encroachment on farmlands. However, governance quality, including the presence of effective conflict management institutions, significantly moderates the climate-conflict pathway. Recommendations include incorporating climate adaptation planning into Nigeria's conflict prevention strategy, establishing resource-sharing agreements between farming and herding communities, and investing in rangeland rehabilitation as a structural conflict prevention measure. Keywords: climate change, pastoralist-farmer conflict, Middle Belt, resource conflict, Nigeria.