A Longitudinal Investigation of Science Identity Development Trajectories Among Secondary Students Transitioning to University in South West Nigeria

This study investigated the developmental trajectories of scientific identity among students transitioning from secondary to university science education in South West Nigeria. Scientific identity is a dynamic construct whose evolution during the critical transition period has significant implications for STEM persistence, yet no longitudinal studies tracking this process exist in the Nigerian context. A longitudinal cohort design was used, following 300 science students from SS3 through their first two years of university across Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States. Data were collected at five time points using the Science Identity Scale, Science Self-Concept Measure, and semi-structured interviews with a purposive subsample of 40 participants. Multilevel growth curve modelling was used to identify distinct trajectory classes. Latent Class Growth Analysis revealed four trajectory types: stable high, ascending, declining, and persistently low. Teacher quality and peer science community at both secondary and university levels were significant trajectory predictors. Qualitative data illuminated the identity negotiation processes at work during the transition. The study makes an original longitudinal contribution to Nigerian science education research and establishes an empirical foundation for identity-focused transition support programmes at the secondary-tertiary interface in South West Nigeria. Keywords: science identity, longitudinal study, secondary-university transition, South West Nigeria, trajectory analysis.