GIS-Based Analysis of Crime Hotspots in Lagos State for Security Planning

Rising urban crime rates in Lagos State necessitate evidence-based spatial strategies for policing and security resource deployment. This study analyses the spatial distribution of reported crime incidents in Lagos metropolis using GIS-based crime mapping and spatial statistics. Incident data from the Lagos State Police Command covering the period 2020 to 2023 are geo-referenced to individual incident locations and categorised by crime type. Kernel density estimation produces crime intensity surfaces highlighting hotspot zones across the metropolitan area. Global and local Moran's I statistics confirm spatial clustering of violent crime in the Agege, Bariga, and Ajegunle communities. Environmental design variables including street lighting density, proximity to informal settlements, and building vacancy rates are integrated as explanatory covariates in a spatial regression model. Results identify that areas with the highest crime rates share characteristics of poor lighting, high population density, and limited formal economic activity. The study provides an evidence base for the Lagos State Security Trust Fund and the Nigeria Police Force to target crime prevention resources spatially. Keywords: crime mapping, GIS, hotspot analysis, Lagos, security planning