📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
The Guinea Savanna belt of Taraba State in North East Nigeria represents a transitional ecosystem sensitive to both climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance. This study conducts a multi-temporal analysis of vegetation trends using 20 years of MODIS NDVI time series data from 2003 to 2023. Phenological metrics including the start of season, peak NDVI, length of growing season, and time-integrated NDVI are extracted using the TIMESAT software package. Mann-Kendall trend tests identify pixels with statistically significant greening or browning trends. Results reveal spatially differentiated patterns, with significant browning trends in northern Taraba associated with expanding smallholder cultivation and livestock grazing pressure, contrasting with greenup trends in the Mambilla Plateau where tea cultivation and moisture-retaining highland conditions prevail. Land use change data from Sentinel-2 classification are integrated to distinguish anthropogenic from climate-induced vegetation changes. The study contributes to understanding of savanna ecosystem dynamics and provides a remote sensing baseline for the Taraba State Ministry of Environment. Keywords: vegetation trends, Guinea savanna, MODIS, phenology, Taraba State
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