Mapping and Monitoring Agricultural Drought in Nigeria’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone Using MODIS

Agricultural drought in Nigeria's Sudano-Sahelian zone threatens the food security of millions dependent on rainfed smallholder farming. This study maps and monitors agricultural drought in Katsina, Jigawa, and Sokoto states using MODIS-derived drought indices. The Vegetation Condition Index, the Temperature Condition Index, and the Vegetation Health Index are computed from 8-day MODIS surface reflectance and land surface temperature products for the 2016 to 2023 growing seasons. Drought events are classified using a standardised anomaly threshold approach and validated against recorded crop failure reports from state agricultural development programmes. The spatial extent, severity, and duration of drought events are characterised for each cropping season. Results identify 2021 and 2022 as the most severe drought years, with over 40 percent of the combined study area experiencing moderate to severe agricultural drought during peak cropping periods. The study integrates rainfall anomaly data from CHIRPS to confirm the agricultural drought detection accuracy. Keywords: agricultural drought, MODIS, Vegetation Health Index, Sudano-Sahelian, food security