Analytical Modelling of the Electrical Output of Wind-Solar Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification in Jigawa State

Hybrid wind-solar photovoltaic systems offer improved reliability and energy supply quality relative to standalone solar or wind systems by exploiting the complementarity of wind and solar resources. Jigawa State in North West Nigeria exhibits promising combined wind and solar resources that have not been systematically exploited for rural electrification. This study develops an analytical model of the electrical output and battery storage requirements of a wind-solar hybrid system sized for a representative rural community of 100 households in Jigawa State. Monthly mean wind speed data from Dutse meteorological station and solar irradiance from NASA POWER are used as input time series. The complementarity index is computed to quantify the degree to which wind and solar resources compensate each other across seasons. Homer Grid software is used for techno-economic optimisation of system configurations. Analytical expressions for system reliability, loss of load probability, and excess energy fraction are derived and validated against Homer simulation results. Results indicate that a hybrid system with 15 kWp PV, 5 kW wind turbine, and 120 kWh battery bank achieves 99.2 percent reliability at lower cost than standalone PV with equivalent battery storage. Loss of load probability is reduced by 68 percent relative to standalone PV. Keywords: wind-solar hybrid, rural electrification, Jigawa State, HOMER, energy complementarity