Systems Analysis of Agricultural Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Sokoto-Rima Basin: Optimisation and Trade-Off Analysis

This study conducts a comprehensive systems analysis of the water-energy-food nexus in the Sokoto-Rima River Basin in North West Nigeria, developing an original integrated optimisation framework for nexus resource management. The water-energy-food nexus, which recognises the interdependencies among these three critical resources, is particularly pronounced in the Sokoto-Rima basin where irrigation water demand competes with hydropower generation at Kainji and Shiroro dams, agricultural land use affects groundwater recharge, and agricultural energy demand strains the regional power grid. Comprehensive nexus analysis and optimisation is absent from the literature for this important Nigerian basin. This study develops a system dynamics model of water, energy, and food flows in the Sokoto-Rima basin, incorporating irrigation water demand, hydropower generation constraints, crop production response functions, and energy system interactions. Model parameterisation uses field survey data from 200 farming households, hydropower operational records, and electricity distribution data. A multi-objective optimisation framework identifies Pareto-optimal nexus management strategies that balance water use, energy generation, and food production objectives under current and projected future resource constraints. Climate change scenario integration extends the analysis to 2050 under three emissions pathways. Findings reveal strong trade-offs between hydropower maximisation and irrigation water availability, with the current management approach costing the basin an estimated 18 percent of potential agricultural output through energy sector water demands. WEF nexus-optimised management scenarios improve aggregate basin welfare by 24 percent. The study contributes an original WEF nexus optimisation framework for the Sokoto-Rima basin.

Keywords: water-energy-food nexus, systems analysis, Sokoto-Rima basin, nexus optimisation, Nigeria.