Empirical Evaluation of Ballistic Fingerprinting Technology in Armed Robbery Prosecutions in Lagos State

Ballistic fingerprinting, which involves the forensic comparison of markings left by firearms on cartridge cases and projectiles, offers a systematic approach to linking weapons across multiple crime scenes, yet its adoption within Nigerian forensic practice remains limited. This study empirically evaluates the operational utility of ballistic fingerprinting technology in armed robbery prosecutions in Lagos State between 2019 and 2024. An analytical empirical design was employed, selecting forty prosecuted armed robbery cases involving recovered firearm evidence, conducting comparative ballistic examinations on forty-six cartridge cases and projectile exhibits using a comparison microscope, and reviewing prosecution outcomes in relation to ballistic evidence contribution. Statistical analysis assessed the sensitivity and specificity of ballistic matching findings and their correlation with conviction rates. Findings indicate that ballistic fingerprinting evidence was cited as materially contributing to prosecution in twenty-seven percent of analysed cases, with accuracy rates of eighty-nine percent for cartridge case comparisons under standardised laboratory conditions. However, ninety percent of original crime scene exhibits had been improperly stored, reducing the proportion suitable for examination. The study identifies inadequate firearm evidence storage standards within Lagos State Police custody as the primary constraint on ballistic fingerprinting utility. Recommendations include the establishment of a ballistic evidence reference database for Lagos State, investment in IBIS technology, and revision of firearms evidence storage protocols statewide. Keywords: ballistic fingerprinting, armed robbery, Lagos State, cartridge case comparison, prosecution.