Supply Chain Risk Assessment for a Steel Rolling Mill in Delta State

This research conducts a supply chain risk assessment for a steel rolling mill operating in Delta State, South South Nigeria. The Nigerian steel industry has faced persistent structural challenges including dependence on imported billets, unreliable energy supply, and port logistics inefficiencies, all of which create supply chain vulnerabilities that threaten production continuity. This study employs a qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach, utilising a risk probability-impact matrix to classify and prioritise identified supply chain risks. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with supply chain, procurement, and operations managers, supplemented by a review of twelve months of procurement and production records. A total of twenty-three distinct supply chain risk events were identified and categorised across upstream, operational, and downstream dimensions. Results reveal that billet import delays and electricity supply disruptions represent the highest-risk events based on combined probability and impact scores. The study recommends diversifying the billet supplier base to include domestic scrap-based producers, investing in captive power generation capacity, and establishing a strategic safety stock policy for critical production inputs. A risk mitigation roadmap with implementation timelines is provided. This research offers a structured risk management framework applicable to other heavy manufacturing firms in the Niger Delta region. Keywords: supply chain risk, steel rolling mill, risk matrix, Delta State, procurement