Spatial Statistical Analysis of Crime Distribution Patterns in Kaduna State

Crime distribution in Kaduna State, North West Nigeria, exhibits pronounced spatial clustering driven by socioeconomic disparities, communal conflict histories, and uneven policing resource deployment across the state's 23 Local Government Areas. This study applies spatial statistical analysis methods including kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation using Moran's I statistic, and geographically weighted regression to examine the spatial determinants of violent crime incidence using incident data from the Kaduna State Police Command for 2021 to 2023. Crime incidents are geocoded to ward level using spatial reference data from the National Space Research and Development Agency. Socioeconomic covariates including unemployment rate, poverty incidence, educational attainment, and population density are sourced from state-level census projections and National Bureau of Statistics surveys. Moran's I test confirms statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation in violent crime rates at the ward level. Geographically weighted regression reveals that the relationship between unemployment and violent crime varies spatially, with the strongest association in peri-urban wards of Kaduna South and Igabi LGAs. Kernel density estimation maps identify five high-density crime hotspots requiring priority policing resource allocation. The study provides a quantitative foundation for evidence-based crime prevention strategy in the state. Keywords: spatial statistics, crime analysis, Kaduna State, geographically weighted regression, Moran's I.