Mortality Experience and Life Insurance Pricing in Nigeria: Developing Indigenous Actuarial Tables

This dissertation develops a comprehensive set of indigenous actuarial mortality tables for the Nigerian life insurance market, addressing the critical absence of locally calibrated mortality data that forces Nigerian life insurers to rely on outdated or internationally sourced tables that inadequately reflect domestic mortality patterns. The use of inappropriate mortality assumptions in life insurance pricing creates systematic mispricing risks, potential adverse selection exposure, and inadequate reserve provisioning. This study constructs mortality tables for assured lives, annuitant populations, and group life policyholder cohorts using exposure and claims data collected from twelve Nigerian life insurance companies under a data consortium arrangement facilitated through the Chartered Insurance Institute of Nigeria. Graduated mortality rates are estimated using the Whittaker-Henderson graduation method and validated against independent population mortality estimates from the National Population Commission. Separate tables are developed for male, female, age-stratified, occupational class-stratified, and geographical zone-stratified populations to capture the heterogeneous mortality environment within Nigeria. The tables are further projected forward using the Lee-Carter model to generate tables valid for pricing products with long-term cash flow obligations. An original Nigerian Assured Lives Mortality Table (NALMT 2024) is published as the primary output. The dissertation establishes a framework for ongoing mortality experience monitoring and table revision. Keywords: Mortality Tables, Life Insurance Pricing, Actuarial Science, Nigeria, Indigenous Mortality Data.