The Moderating Role of Technology Infrastructure on the Relationship Between Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Performance in FMCG Companies in Northern Nigeria

This study investigates the moderating role of technology infrastructure in the relationship between demand forecasting quality and supply chain performance in FMCG companies operating in the North West and North Central geopolitical zones of Nigeria. While demand forecasting has been widely established as a driver of supply chain efficiency, the strength of this relationship is theorised to be contingent on the quality of supporting technology infrastructure including enterprise resource planning systems, data analytics tools, and real-time inventory platforms. Using a quantitative cross-sectional design, structured questionnaires were administered to 180 supply chain and operations managers in 35 FMCG distribution and manufacturing firms in Kano, Sokoto, Kaduna, and Abuja. Demand forecasting quality is measured through forecast accuracy rate, bias ratio, and methodology sophistication. Supply chain performance is assessed through service level, inventory turnover, and logistics cost as a percentage of revenue. Technology infrastructure is assessed through system integration depth, data timeliness, and user competency. Hierarchical moderated regression analysis is used to test the moderating hypothesis. The study draws on contingency theory and recent technology-enabled supply chain performance literature. Findings are expected to confirm that technology infrastructure significantly strengthens the forecasting-performance relationship, with implications for ERP investment decisions. The study contributes original empirical insight into a contextual variable that has been theorised but rarely tested in African FMCG supply chains. Recommendations address firm operations directors and technology vendors on prioritising integrated forecasting platforms. Keywords: demand forecasting, technology infrastructure, supply chain performance, FMCG, northern Nigeria.