Supply Chain Disruption Severity, Response Strategies, and Recovery Performance: Empirical Evidence from Retail Firms in the North East Zone of Nigeria

This study empirically investigates the relationship between supply chain disruption severity, selected response strategies, and recovery performance among retail firms in the North East geopolitical zone of Nigeria, drawing samples from Borno, Yobe, and Gombe States. The North East zone has experienced some of the most severe supply chain disruptions in Nigeria, arising from insurgency-related road closures, market shutdowns, and supplier network fragmentation. Despite their significance, supply chain recovery dynamics in this context remain empirically underexplored. Using a quantitative survey design, structured questionnaires were administered to 140 retail business owners and supply chain managers across the three states. Disruption severity is operationalised through supply unavailability duration, financial loss magnitude, and customer service deterioration score. Response strategies examined include emergency sourcing, demand management, product substitution, and cross-border alternative channel activation. Recovery performance is measured through time to full supply restoration, cost of recovery, and customer retention rate post-disruption. Multiple regression analysis is employed. The study draws on supply chain disruption management theory and recent resilience literature from conflict-affected African market contexts. Findings are expected to demonstrate that diversified emergency sourcing strategies achieve significantly faster recovery times, while firms relying on single-source alternatives exhibit prolonged recovery. The study makes an original empirical contribution to understanding supply chain dynamics in active conflict-adjacent commercial environments. Recommendations address retail associations, government stabilisation programmes, and humanitarian organisations operating in the North East. Keywords: supply chain disruption, response strategies, recovery performance, North East Nigeria, retail.