Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Vessel Traffic Management System in Lagos Port Complex

Vessel traffic management systems are designed to improve the safety and efficiency of vessel movements in port approaches and port waters through real-time monitoring, communication, and traffic organisation services. This study empirically analyses the effectiveness of the vessel traffic management system operated at the Lagos Port Complex, examining its impact on collision risk reduction, berth utilisation efficiency, and vessel arrival delay reduction since its implementation. A quantitative pre-post and longitudinal analysis design was employed, drawing on vessel traffic data, berth allocation records, incident reports, and system operational logs from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Lagos Vessel Traffic Service for the periods 2017 to 2019 (pre-enhanced system) and 2020 to 2024 (post-enhanced system implementation). Incident rates, berth waiting times, and average approach passage times are compared across the two periods using appropriate statistical tests. Results indicate a statistically significant reduction in the rate of near-miss collision events in the port approach channel following the enhanced system implementation, while improvements in berth waiting time and overall port throughput are more modest and confounded by the influence of port congestion factors external to the traffic management system. The study contributes a rigorous empirical evaluation of a specific vessel traffic management system intervention in a Nigerian port context. Keywords: vessel traffic management, Lagos Port Complex, maritime safety, collision risk, port efficiency