Assessment of Drought Occurrence and Agricultural Vulnerability in Yobe State

Drought is the most economically devastating meteorological hazard affecting Nigeria's arid North East zone, with Yobe State among the most exposed states due to its Sahelian climate and dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study assesses the frequency and severity of drought occurrences in Yobe State and evaluates associated agricultural vulnerability using rainfall data from NiMet stations in Damaturu and Gashua for the period 2015 to 2023. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed at three-month and six-month timescales to classify drought intensity from mild to extreme categories. Agricultural impact data were sourced from the Yobe State Agricultural Development Program (ADP) and cross-referenced with satellite-derived vegetation indices from MODIS. Results show that Yobe State experienced four episodes of moderate-to-severe drought during the study period, with the 2021 and 2022 seasons recording the most pronounced SPI deficits. Strong positive correlations between SPI values and millet and sorghum yield indices confirm the sensitivity of dominant food crops to rainfall deficits. Qualitative interviews with 100 farmers in Geidam and Bade LGAs reveal limited awareness of early drought warnings and insufficient access to drought-tolerant seed varieties. The study recommends integration of SPI-based drought monitoring into NiMet advisory bulletins and expansion of ADP input subsidy programs. Keywords: drought, SPI, Yobe, agriculture, food security.