Examining the Relationship Between Atmospheric Humidity and Malaria Incidence in Taraba State

Malaria transmission in Nigeria is inherently linked to the meteorological conditions that govern the biological cycle of Anopheles mosquito vectors, particularly temperature and humidity. This study examines the statistical relationship between atmospheric humidity levels and malaria incidence in Taraba State, located in Nigeria's North East geopolitical zone, where malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity. Monthly relative humidity data from NiMet's Jalingo synoptic station were correlated with confirmed malaria case data from the Taraba State Ministry of Health spanning 2018 to 2022. Cross-correlation analysis with varying lag periods of one to three months was applied to account for the delayed epidemiological response to meteorological conditions. Results demonstrate a significant positive correlation (r = 0.73) between monthly relative humidity and malaria incidence with a two-month lag, consistent with the incubation periods of Plasmodium falciparum and Anopheles vector development. The highest malaria incidence months of September and October consistently follow the peak humidity months of July and August by approximately six to eight weeks. Disaggregated analysis by zone reveals that communities in the Mambilla Plateau experience distinct malaria transmission seasonality compared to lowland zones, attributable to cooler and more persistently humid microclimates. The study recommends integration of seasonal humidity forecasts into Taraba State malaria prevention program planning cycles. Keywords: malaria, relative humidity, Taraba, vector-borne disease, seasonal transmission.