Empirical Investigation of the Relationship Between Saharan Dust Loading and Terrestrial Photovoltaic Energy Output in Kano State

The intersection of atmospheric science and renewable energy presents an important research frontier in northern Nigeria, where dust aerosol loading from the Sahara represents a significant and underquantified source of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy loss. This study empirically investigates the relationship between Saharan dust aerosol loading and terrestrial solar PV energy output in Kano State using concurrent MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals, pyranometer radiation measurements from IITA Kano, and energy yield data from two grid-connected PV installations monitored from 2021 to 2023. Multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the marginal contribution of dust AOD to PV output reduction, controlling for cloud cover and sun elevation angle. Results demonstrate that dust AOD is a statistically significant and practically important determinant of PV output variability during the November to March harmattan period, with each 0.1 unit increase in AOD associated with a mean energy output reduction of 4.2 percent. Panel soiling from dust deposition, quantified through scheduled vs. unscheduled cleaning experiment records, accounts for an additional 7 to 12 percent cumulative output reduction over a 30-day non-cleaning cycle during peak harmattan. An empirical correction model for dust-induced PV output losses is developed and validated against held-out energy yield records, achieving R-squared of 0.79. The study provides actionable guidance for PV system financial modelling and maintenance planning in northern Nigeria. Keywords: dust aerosol, solar PV, Kano, aerosol optical depth, energy yield.