Reliability Analysis of Power Supply Systems in Industrial Estates in Rivers State

Unreliable electricity supply remains one of the most significant constraints on industrial productivity in Nigeria, with the South South geopolitical zone particularly affected by infrastructure deficits and vandalism of transmission assets. This study conducts a reliability analysis of the power supply systems serving two major industrial estates in Rivers State, employing fault tree analysis (FTA) and reliability block diagrams (RBD) to identify failure modes and quantify system-level reliability metrics. Failure frequency and duration data were obtained from the Transmission Company of Nigeria and supplemented by records maintained by estate facility managers over a 36-month period. System reliability, availability, mean time between failures (MTBF), and mean time to repair (MTTR) are computed for the existing configuration. Critical failure nodes are identified using importance measures derived from the fault tree. Results indicate an average system availability of 61 percent, significantly below the 85 percent target set in the Power Sector Recovery Programme. Transformers and distribution feeders are identified as the most critical failure components. The study evaluates two redundancy configurations, parallel backup systems and ring network topology, and demonstrates that a ring configuration raises availability to 79 percent at a moderate capital cost. Recommendations include prioritizing infrastructure investment at identified critical nodes and establishing a predictive maintenance programme. This research provides practical guidance for industrial estate facility managers and regulatory bodies in Rivers State. Keywords: reliability analysis, power supply, industrial estates, Rivers State, fault tree analysis