Supply Chain Risk Assessment for Rice Production in Ebonyi State Using Decision Analysis

Rice production in Ebonyi State, South East Nigeria, is a cornerstone of both food security and rural livelihoods, yet the rice supply chain is exposed to a range of risks including flooding, pest infestations, price volatility, and transportation disruptions. This study applies decision analysis to assess and prioritize supply chain risks along the paddy rice value chain in Ebonyi State, from input procurement to milling and retail. Using a structured risk identification framework drawing on literature and interviews with 60 value chain actors, 24 distinct risk events are identified and classified. Probability of occurrence and financial impact estimates are elicited from value chain experts using a Delphi-inspired structured survey. Expected loss values are computed for each risk, and a risk matrix is constructed to categorize risks by severity and likelihood. Decision trees are applied to evaluate two risk mitigation strategies: crop insurance and diversified sourcing of inputs. Results identify price volatility and seasonal flooding as the highest-priority risks by expected loss value. The decision tree analysis indicates that adopting crop insurance alongside input diversification reduces expected annual loss per farm by 41 percent at a premium cost equivalent to 8 percent of gross revenue. Recommendations include establishing a state-level agricultural insurance scheme and creating a centralized rice market information system. This research provides a comprehensive risk management framework applicable to rice supply chains across Nigeria's South East zone. Keywords: supply chain risk, decision analysis, rice production, Ebonyi State, risk matrix