Simulation-Based Evaluation of Emergency Response Time for Fire Incidents in Ibadan Metropolis

Delayed emergency response to fire incidents in Nigerian urban centres results in preventable loss of life, property destruction, and community trauma. This study uses discrete event simulation to model and evaluate emergency response times for the Ibadan Fire Service in Oyo State, South West Nigeria, which serves a metropolitan population exceeding four million people. Data on fire incident occurrence times, locations, fire station positions, dispatch procedures, travel times, and suppression durations were collected from Ibadan South West, North West, and North East local government fire service records over an 18-month period. A simulation model is constructed representing incident generation, call receipt, dispatch, travel, and suppression phases. The model is validated against observed average response times and then used to experiment with alternative station configurations and fleet sizing. Results indicate that current average response time of 17.4 minutes far exceeds the internationally recommended benchmark of 8 minutes. Simulation experiments show that adding one strategically located station in the Agodi Government Reservation Area reduces average response time to 10.2 minutes, bringing performance within 30 percent of the benchmark. A budget-constrained scenario with improved dispatch technology achieves 13.1 minutes without capital investment in new stations. Recommendations include establishing the new station and upgrading dispatch communication systems. This research provides an evidence-based planning tool for emergency services in Nigeria's third-largest city. Keywords: discrete event simulation, emergency response, fire service, Ibadan, response time