Developing an Indigenous Orthopaedic Implant Manufacturing Ecosystem in Nigeria: A Techno-Economic Feasibility Analysis and Policy Framework

Nigeria's orthopaedic sector is almost entirely dependent on imported implants, creating systemic fragility, high patient costs, and chronic supply gaps. Indigenous implant manufacturing has the potential to transform this dependency while stimulating industrial development, yet no systematic techno-economic feasibility analysis has been conducted for the Nigerian context. This study undertakes a comprehensive techno-economic feasibility analysis of establishing an orthopaedic implant manufacturing ecosystem in Nigeria, integrating evidence from engineering, health economics, industrial policy, and orthopaedic clinical practice. Phase one conducts a national demand assessment using service utilisation data from 20 teaching hospitals and supply chain analysis of the current import market. Phase two applies a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the financial viability of small, medium, and large-scale manufacturing scenarios for plates, nails, and screws. Phase three uses multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate potential manufacturing sites across six geopolitical zones based on infrastructure, skills availability, and regulatory environment. Phase four undertakes a key informant study with 50 industrialists, orthopaedic surgeons, engineers, and policy officials to co-design a pragmatic policy framework for regulatory approval and market establishment. The study hypothesises that a medium-scale facility producing high-volume standard implants in Lagos or Ogun State is economically viable within a ten-year horizon under existing tariff structures. Findings will be submitted to the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment and the Orthopaedic Medical Association of Nigeria. Keywords: orthopaedic implants, indigenous manufacturing, techno-economic analysis, health policy, Nigeria.